The Grand Illusion
It now appears, pending the results of the Green Party’s initiative to force recounts in three states, that Hillary Clinton, while losing the election through the Electoral College, actually won the popular vote by more than two million votes. That is the largest popular vote margin in favor of a losing candidate in U.S. history. Even Al Gore only had a 540,000 vote margin.
So, despite a significant Electoral College victory, President-elect Trump is essentially the minority candidate who is behaving as though he won a great majority. If Trump pushes the wide range of issues that he trumpeted during the campaign, he’s very likely to alienate the majority of the nation, especially given that neither candidate was regarded favorably by a majority of the electorate. Yet, if he doesn’t push at least some of the campaign issues, he will alienate sectors of his hard-core base, which is already a minority.
There are already signs of discontent among the most conservative of Trump supporters as a result of Trump’s potential and proposed Cabinet appointments.
Add to that the fact that some Republican senators oppose certain of Trump’s pledges and that the Republicans only have a two vote majority in the Senate, and it’s not hard to see that enacting some of what he promised will be anything but easy, and may not even be possible.
On the other hand, both parties believe that an overhaul of the corporate tax structure is necessary and that tax reform should be undertaken. Fixing the corporate tax mess is likely to be the easier part of that, especially since Trump’s proposed changes to individual income tax rates will cause the federal deficit to soar. Trump and the Democrats both want to improve the nation’s infrastructure, but conservative Republicans… not so much.
With Jeff Sessions as attorney general, assuming he is confirmed, which is more likely than not, the U.S. position on immigration will definitely harden, the only question being how much and in what specific areas. And while Trump has stated that conditions for minorities need to improve, his only specific point so far has been that all the legislation pushed by Democrats hasn’t done the job.
So…just what will a Trump Presidency bring? Lots of people have firm ideas, including me. I suspect we’ll all be wrong to some degree
“I suspect we’ll all be wrong to some degree”
Where Trump is concerned, none of you have been even remotely correct for the past 18 months. I doubt your streak of incorrect projections will end anytime soon.
Quite possibly, but I did point out from the beginning that he was quite likely to win. So I wasn’t wrong there. And he won’t build the wall he promised. He’s already backtracking on that. And I will stick by my predictions that he won’t be able to do a great deal of what he promised.
Come back in a year… and we’ll see.
I’ll be around. Maybe you can be more specific in detailing how you will determine whether or not he has delivered on his promises. If he builds a fence instead of a wall will you consider that a failed promise? We need to cement the goal posts into place.
I’ll set a reminder on my calendar to check back in on this specific topic in early December 2017.
He said “wall,” not fence, and he was consistently specific on that. You’re big on specifics; so we’ll stick to them.
I’m starting to agree that many Trump supporters are living in a post-truth society, specifics don’t matter so long as they are winning. When President Obama proposes infrastructure spending it’s government overreach, but now that President-Elect Trump is tooting that same horn, Trump is suddenly a ‘Jobs President.’
Maybe this is just tunnel vision, but I feel like there was a time that major political candidates and their supporters weren’t all actively engaged in gas-lighting the other side.
Shoot, then let’s just mark this as a “no” now and a failed promise. There’s going to be a lot of fencing; it won’t be 100% solid wall.
I guess we are in a post-truth world. But based on his cabinet picks, I am already getting tired of all the winning. I particularly like Pruitt for EPA. I bet you have some opinions on that pick. Heh.
You are forgetting that The United States is not a Democracy, but a Constitutional Republic, so the popular vote is largely irrelevant in determining who won the presidency.
I’ve already acknowledged that point. What is not irrelevant is that a majority of the people voted for someone else, and those people will be unhappy, possibly very unhappy, if Trump attempts to carry out some of his campaign promises.
Without California, Trump won the popular vote by 1.5 million votes in the other 49 States. When he won a State, he won by a larger average margin than when Clinton won a State.
California automatically registers all drivers license holders to vote, including illegals. A reasonable person could certainly imagine that quite a few illegals voted in that State. How many? Well, Trump’s loss in that State was more lopsided than in any other State by a large amount. A suspiciously large amount, some might say. Could it have been rigged?
So yeah, he lost the popular vote but I think the only majority that will be unhappy lives in CA. It doesn’t bother me in the least if an illegal is unhappy with the outcome. Ha ha, they lose!
So instead of entitling this story “Minority Government?” perhaps it should be entitled “Illegal Voters Failed?”
The vote totals I used to draw my conclusions came from here and here:
http://heavy.com/news/2016/11/popular-vote-results-2016-clinton-trump-2012-2008-vs-electoral-college-california-uncounted-ballots-new-york-update-totals-final/
and
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/1/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/htmlview?usp=sharing&sle=true
California’s motor voter implementation only registers those who used their US passport or state issued birth certificate as one of the forms of ID they presented.
Funny, but none of the articles I read from the LA Times or Washington Post said anything at all about registration requiring a birth certificate or US passport as original ID. They mention a question wherein the registrant “attests” to their eligibility to vote.
Perhaps it’s different in actual practice but I can’t find evidence of it (yes, I know that absence of evidence isn’t proof positive either).
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/07/11/this-new-california-law-could-dramatically-change-the-demographics-of-its-electorate/
The myth of illegal voters swinging the popular vote to Clinton is just another example of the way Trump lies about anything that does not fit his world view. I have consistently found that the scariest thing about the Donald is not so much his relentless pushing of falsehoods to spin his narrative but the enthusiasm with which his supporters, many of whom are intelligent rationale people, embrace and repeat his lies as gospel truth.
For those of us who did not vote for him, the fact that Trump will have problems fulfilling his promises is a benefit. Looks like its the Democrats’ turn to be stubborn — particularly in blocking some of his judicial appointments
If Trump controls immigration with a wall, a fence, sensor, a national guard soldier or all of the above, most people will not care. The fact is that the current administration tacitly encouraged illegal immigration for political and major corporate reasons. Trump is a Populist President currently wearing an (R) behind his name. Woe to the political opponents on either side of the aisle that do not support his populist platform. For example, the current healthcare act is a poorly conceived and written piece of legislation but some of its tenants are popular and need to be considered when a new health care act is developed. if the Republicans try to overturn the current health care act without a viable replacement, Trump will veto that action and force the Congress to do their job and come up with a viable solution. He is more like a Gov. Ventura than a Gov. Kasich.
In my mind, especially considering the current state of politics, the ideal state is to have government tired in knots and therefore doing a little as possible. New law seldom improves a situation. Tax reform is a disguise for higher taxes. Health care reform is a disguise for more expensive health care. Politics in general just sucks money from the people.
Beat that for being cynical!
WWIII happens during Trump’s second year in office.
China and Russia ally with North Korea.
Imports stop flowing across the U.S. border due to a Chinese embargo.
The U.S. experiences a crop failure.
Starvation sets in.
The Federal government fails to solve the hunger problem.
A revolution happens.
Shortly after Korea invades.
How’s that for cynical.
That’s not cynical, that’s unhinged.
Sometimes it’s more than a little difficult to tell the difference, especially once the conspiracy theorists get involved.
As I promised above, I am here a year later to check in. No wall or fence has been built yet. The wall prototypes have been built (near San Diego?) and are apparently entering a “testing and evaluation” phase at this time.
So for now, this is still marked as a “no” and a failed promise.
I’ll check back in another year (setting reminder on calendar).