The Grand Illusion
Trump will win re-election. What do I mean by “this”? It’s not any one thing, but a combination of factors.
First, Trump is solidifying his base into an immovable monolith. Admittedly, that “monolith” amounts to “only” 36-46% of the electorate, depending on how it’s measured, but for voting purposes, I’d submit it’s 45-48% of likely voters, and a large percentage of this group consistently votes, and that’s more than enough to win with a “fragmented” electorate.
Second, the Democrats are splintering and arguing over which liberal “theme” is most important and which will galvanize their supporters.
Third, anything that’s radical enough to electrify or galvanize a particular group of supporters won’t be of paramount interest to the rest of Democratic voters and will alienate some, while galvanizing Trump supporters in opposition.
Fourth, with something like fourteen different candidates with considerably different priorities, the media will have a field day targeting or trumpeting those differences, which will in turn create an impression of incompetence and disorganization among Democrats, and that will reduce support and interest by independent voters.
Fifth, the proliferation of specific interests will make it difficult, if not impossible, for Democrats to come up with a single, meaningful, and unifying theme and to unite enthusiastically behind a single candidate.
Sixth, unless the Democrats in the House can come up with factual, indisputable, and hard evidence that Trump, or someone in the Trump family, did something that was criminal and major – and soon – any continued pursuit of Trump and his family will eventually be regarded as the “witch hunt” Trump claims it already is and will discredit the Democrats.
Seventh, because of the Democratic takeover of the House of Representatives, Democrats believe Trump is so vulnerable that any Democratic candidate can win. What they don’t want to acknowledge is that they won because most of their candidates were tailored to win in those specific districts. While this is a viable and successful Congressional strategy, it doesn’t translate to a national presidential strategy, especially since too many of those running are assuming they have or can obtain national mandate, which they don’t have and mostly like won’t obtain.
Eighth, none of the Democratic candidates seem to realize any of the above, and while Nancy Pelosi does, her influence over who runs and what they say is limited to advice and counsel, which none of the young hotshots are likely to heed.
So brace yourselves for a second Trump term, unless his health fails suddenly… and that might not even keep him from winning, so long as he’s alive and able to tweet.
A second term for Trump has looked like a given for some time now. The discovery of factual, indisputable, and hard evidence would not even change this as everyone now gets their news from their echo chamber of choice and his supporters would undoubtedly deny the evidence of their own eyes if it conflicts with what they wish to believe.
The greater concern is what happens after the second term. I firmly believe that Trump will have no intention of relinquishing power and will spend a good part of any second term creating the rationale for a third term. Knowing that any challenge to Trump amounts to career suicide the Republican senate will rubber stamp any moves he makes no matter how unconstitutional they may be.
If and when Trump is finally removed from office there will be an undoubted and quite possibly successful attempt to pass the crown to Ivanka. The destruction of the institutions we rely on to place a check on this sort of abuse of power has already begun and one can only imagine how much damage will have been done by 2024.
A significant fraction of the right – at least as many as on the left make noises about what if Trump doesn’t leave – believed Obama would not step down at the end of his second term, yet he did.
However much someone might WANT to stick around after the law required their departure, they wouldn’t last 24 hours past when they were supposed to leave. It’s simple, withdraw their protective detail, and those around them would bodily toss them out. Few enough even among their hand-picked appointees would support them; and most of those they once commanded would act to remove them by whatever means necessary.
Oh so negative, it’s almost as if we do not believe in the Republic and Democracy.
If we do believe: then, of course the masses will realize their error and correct this with their votes. Even if the masses continue to be masses, the checks and balances will correct things for us.
The independent voters who do the necessary analysis work will shake their head at the Democrats; but realize that, however poor the quality, the Democrat would be better for the nation than more of Trump.
Trump’s base will realize that Small Government achieved by destruction of Big Government does not continue those services which they themselves need. The ones who will continue to support such destruction without replacement are the anarchists who will see the opportunity to be part of the coming kleptocracy; which is the usual outcome of small government.
Maybe we should do what Brooks suggests if we have the time.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/15/opinion/cultural-revolution-meritocracy.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
I think the thing that will actually catch up on P45 eventually will be a prosecution for misuse of charitable funds for private purposes: I suspect some of this is visible in the ‘unaudited’ tax returns.