The Grand Illusion
Last week, amid the personal, geo-political, and humanitarian disasters caused by Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, it also dawned on the tech world that between forty and seventy percent of the world’s pure neon gas [depending on which source is reporting] has been refined and provided by Ukraine. We can certainly do without any more garish neon signs, but nearly perfectly neon is required for the production and manufacture of the majority of computer chips, and it takes time to build and get into operation a plant that can provide the 99.9% pure neon required for high-tech uses..
Most chip manufacturers appear to have between three to eight weeks supply of neon, but some have less than that. China also has neon, likely enough for its needs, and Linde built a neon plant in Texas in 2016, but some chip-makers will soon exhaust their supplies, and that means another chip shortage in the months ahead.
Outsourcing and offshore manufacturing to get the cheapest costs is based on the assumption that trade patterns remain stable and reliable, and that all nations value economic stability over military objectives, but Putin’s attack on Ukraine illustrates the dangers of national and industrial policy based on that assumption.
And this doesn’t even take into account that Ukraine also supplies the majority of wheat and vegetable oil for countries like Egypt, where shortages could also result in hardships and socio-political unrest.
So long as the world contains nation-state powers that can disrupt trade and supply lines, it’s foolhardy not to have critical reserve capabilities. So…in effect, to maintain a stable industrial economy, the U.S. either needs to maintain overwhelming military power and considerable economic power to keep rogue regimes in line or an industrial policy and programs to insulate our manufacturing and wholesale production economy from supply interruptions.
Right now, it appears that we’re not doing that well on either front, largely because politicians won’t or can’t address either and because too many of the giant corporations don’t want to do anything that adversely affects their immediate profitability in the slightest… and because too many Americans fail to understand that cheaper at all costs is seldom better in the long run.
But, hey, who cares about the long run (at least enough to really do anything about it)?
“So…in effect, to maintain a stable industrial economy, the U.S. either needs to maintain overwhelming military power and considerable economic power to keep rogue regimes in line or an industrial policy and programs to insulate our manufacturing and wholesale production economy from supply interruptions.”
Or preferably both, if in some balance rather than maximum of either to the serious detriment of the other or the economy.
Good catch on the neon, BTW; hadn’t heard that before.
Neon is a waste product of Russian steel manufacturing. Ukraine only refines it. No Russia, no neon.
Also Russia produces way more cereals and fertilizers than Ukraine. The Arab Spring was due to the Siberian wheat fields burning due to climate change. Not due to Ukraine.
The entire Russian political class supports this move. But let’s pretend it’s just “irrational Putin”.
But whatever. It’s not as if facts matter anymore. Good luck bullying Russia! You might win a free nuke.
Appeasement and “peace in our time” worked out great in 1938-1939.
Funny… I learned a different lesson from WW2: don’t screw with your ethnic minorities, or their bigger brother might get involved.
As far as the big brother is concerned, Ukraine has been “derussifying” the East for 8 years and has caused >13,000 deaths there. (UN figures). That big brother matters, whether we like it or not.
Compare that to the 3,000 westerners whose deaths were enough justification to wreck Iraq & Afghanistan. Slav lives run cheap. It’s no coincidence that the word “Slave” comes from “slav”.
Anyway, good luck with the next Great Depression, if not WW3, since that is the only alternative to “appeasement”. I hope that self-righteousness will be worth it.
Given the latest widely ignored IPCC report released on Feb 28, WW3 will probably only shave a couple of decades off your life expectancy anyway, so it might not even matter all that much in the big picture.
“As far as the big brother is concerned, Ukraine has been “derussifying” the East for 8 years and has caused >13,000 deaths there. (UN figures). That big brother matters, whether we like it or not.”
….
The conflict, which erupted shortly after Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014, has claimed the lives of more than 14,000 people, including approximately 3,000 civilians, and injured more than 7,000 civilians, according to the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). Including UAF, NGU and volunteer forces 4,641 killed; and, approximately 6370 civilians and rebels in the Donetsk- Luhansk regions.
Funny way to reverse the Russification of Ukraine started by Stalin in 1927.
I’m not sure what you are arguing.
However, you might be arguing that people whose families have lived in a place for close to a century can still be considered invaders to be removed.
The Austrian named Hitler certainly felt that way. There were ~2,600 Jews in Austria in 1857, but 192,000 by 1934. Once he was done with them, they were down to 2,000-5,000.
I don’t happen to agree such a view.
Howdy Censored.
Russia’s invaded Ukraine, and all you have to say is “Good luck bullying Russia?”, and engage in whataboutism about Ukraine’s actions?
You’ve told us what “the entire Russian political class” thinks, but you’ve said nothing about what you think about the invasion of Ukraine, and your favored response. I’d love to hear it!
“Whataboutism”? What an adult argument! Are you another person who has such a profound understanding of world politics that you believe you’re “standing up to the kindergarten bully”?
I don’t understand how people forget that they’re dealing with the country which has the most nukes on the planet, factories producing functional hypersonic missiles (while the US prototypes keep blowing up), the ability to produce much cheaper functioning weapons, etc. Russia might have a low GDP measured in dollars, but that doesn’t measure its capacity if it uses money more efficiently.
If one doesn’t believe Russia will back down, there’s only one way to reduce suffering: by not pouring fuel onto the fire by sending either party weapons, and instead working to bring both Ukraine & Russia to the negotiation table ASAP, and solving their disagreement properly.
In fact this was done once before. If you look at the Minsk agreement from 2014, it was set up to ensure Ukraine would stay neutral as its original constitution specified. The Western part could block its entry into the CIS. The Eastern part could block entry into NATO. However the Ukrainian government refused to implement it, and the French & German Minsk guarantors didn’t force them to.
Negotiation requires mutual respect, and not believing that all you need to do is threaten other countries with your big stick (the only US policy these days). The sanctions are destroying this option.
“… Right now, it appears that we’re not doing that well on either front, largely because politicians won’t or can’t address either and because too many of the giant corporations don’t want to do anything that adversely affects their immediate profitability in the slightest… and because too many Americans fail to understand that cheaper at all costs is seldom better in the long run. …”
One of the major problems has always been that we and others have not been able to be relied upon. Like Trump and Putin at the drop of a hat we tear up agreements, ignore rules/laws, and otherwise show our contempt for the each other for various real and fake reasons or no reason at all. This makes it difficult to analyze risk and accept responsibility for our actions/choices and their outcomes.
Which does not mean that we should shelve diplomacy.