The Grand Illusion
From what I can tell, Phase I of the second Trump presidency is where Trump issues executive orders on every campaign promise Trump made, whether or not those promises can legally be accomplished through executive orders. Some, such as eliminating cabinet-level departments, legally require action by Congress, although Trump will certainly attempt to accomplish as much as he can without Congressional authorization, and the Republicans in Congress would prefer that, for the most part, because it absolves them of responsibility.
Trump has now begun the process of impounding funds, i.e., refusing to spend money on programs he doesn’t like, even though Congress has authorized and appropriated the funds. Richard Nixon tried this in the early 1970s, which resulted in Congress passing the Impoundment and Control Act (ICA), and the U.S. Supreme Court telling the President that he couldn’t withhold funds already authorized and appropriated. Trump is apparently ignoring both the law and the Supreme Court ruling, and it’s likely that even the present Supreme Court will rule against him – but that process will take time, and in the interim, federal employees and programs will be hurt and disrupted. This could prove deadly this summer, if another hot, dry, and windy summer engulfs the western U.S., because more than 15,000 federal firefighters are seasonally employed.
Trump is also proposing firing rank-and-file federal employees in large numbers from long-established federal departments without Congressional approval, something equally against the law, although some “flexibility” is not beyond the realm of possibility, given the makeup of the current Supreme Court.
But if the legal restraints on Trump largely hold, what happens in Phase II? Will Trump continue the barrage of executive orders, attempting to overwhelm the legal system? Will he be able to pressure Congress as a whole to enact what he wants? Or will he attack and or pressure key Republicans and vulnerable Democrats?
If all that fails, will he then attempt to corrode/corrupt the legal system further in order to obtain what he wants? Or will he claim victory? [While that’s possible, in my opinion it’s more likely that he’ll attempt to destroy anything that thwarts his imperial desires.]
How effective will he be when wide-scale price increases begin to erode personal income and family budgets? Will people be smart enough to see that his token tax cuts for working and middle class earners don’t compensate for the increasing consumer prices? Or that getting rid of air traffic controllers, VA doctors and support staff, Forest Service firefighters, and other “excess” federal employees only makes life harder for Americans who aren’t billionaires?
Or will they cheer on Dictator/Emperor Trump?
Well, as a citizen of this world, you have to choices in life: to live under US internal policy or to live under US external policy. At the moment, I’m not sure who is getting the better deal 🙂
Reinout (the Netherlands, so it is external policy for me)
Turns out ‘small government’ the GOP has been discussing the last 30 years actually just meant minimizing the checks and balances on their chosen executive. Oversight so ‘small’ it can fit in the tiny hands of their new King.
Maybe we’re heading towards the US of Gravity Dreams? (or Gilead?)
Another thing he has done is declare economic “War” on his neighbours, in the name of the United States of America. With respect to Canada, he is talking about an involuntary “Annexation” of a sovereign country.
Isn’t the sole ability to declare war limited to Congress?
When friends attack friends, the only people who benefit are the enemies.
If the founders had imagined the concept of economic war, it would probably be a power reserved for Congress. But even then, Congress granted the President the power to wage war for 90 days before Congress authorizes it (via the War Powers Act).
Of course, Replications are also constantly arguing that Congress can’t delegate it’s authority (darn those pesky regulations), so you’d think they would also be against the WPA and want to repeal it, but intellectual honesty and logical consistency aren’t really their strong suits.
I feel the focus on payment systems is part of a grand design to have much finer control over the money spigots. Right now it seems like they just have a big on/off switch for entire agencies. I suspect the goal is to be able to turn off specific steams of funds when some blue state governor or mayor displeases him, rather than have red state politicians screaming when the whole thing goes down. (For example, new Republican Senator Katie Britt, all of a sudden being coming quite concerned when learning that the state’s largest employer, the university of Alabama, was losing $1 billion in funding with the NIH cuts.)
From where I sit, the entire focus of the current administration’s efforts are twofold:
1. Anything not benefiting the wealthy in the short term is to be eliminated.
2. Anything that will cement the ongoing power of the Republican party is to be enhanced.
“Or will they cheer on Dictator/Emperor Trump?”
Probably depends on whether they expand their information inputs beyond the propaganda outlets.