Power Barrier

Data center energy demand is skyrocketing, primarily driven by AI and digitalization, with global consumption projected to double by 2030 from 2024 levels. In the U.S., demand could triple by 2028, with forecasts showing substantial growth from 4% to over 10% of total U.S. electricity by 2030.

Behind these forecasts is an assumption that public utilities and other power generating facilities will be able to build the systems to deliver such power. For almost a decade, until the last year or so, power generation facilities showed minimal growth, but to meet data center and other demands will require an expansion of power output/generation of more than 25%, according to studies by the Deloitte Research Center and others.

Data center demand alone is projected to take a fivefold jump from 2024. Industrial electrification from increased manufacturing facilities will increase power demand by 2030, on top of growth in household and commercial consumption.

At the same time, new supply is not coming online fast enough. The energy mix is shifting toward renewables, which accounted for 93% of new capacity through July 2025, with solar and storage making up 83%. But the pace of connecting these new energy sources has lagged. Two terawatts of capacity are stuck in interconnection queues, almost twice the currently installed capacity.

In addition, the power grid faces other challenges, particularly from extreme weather events. In just 2024, there were a record 27 extreme weather events that cost more than US$1 billion each. Such events have risen steadily since the 1980s, when there were on average 3.3 disasters per year that cost US$1 billion or more (inflation-adjusted).

All this growth will require investment, and investment has to come from somewhere. The electric power sector’s traditional funding avenues – filing rate cases and issuing debt and equity – may not suffice. Customer electricity bills rose 23% between 2019 and 2024, with residential prices climbing by nearly 26%, and state power commissions may be reluctant to allow massive price increases.

Significant additional federal funding is problematic, and additional tax breaks for power companies might have a political downside, especially in the 2028 election.

So… who will pay for the coming AI power-demand… and how?

Farewell to the Mass Market Paperback

For some time, I’ve been pointing out the decline of the mass market paperback, and the latest issue of Publishers Weekly contained an article entitled “An Ode to the Mass Market Paperback,” which effectively announced the demise of the pocket-sized paperback book with the decision by Readerlink to discontinue distribution at the end of this year.

So what brought about the decline and pending death of the mass market paperback?

The major factors were a significant increase in production costs combined with the decline and then collapse of the distribution network that fueled the growth of mass-market paperbacks. In the late 1980s, publishers could use a network of more than 600 independent distributor wholesalers to deliver inventory to more than 100,000 outlets where magazines and newspapers were being sold. By the late nineties, that network had been replaced by a few national distributors, who couldn’t or didn’t serve the bulk of the smaller magazine outlets.

Personally, I’ve also noted that book sections in big box stores, such as Walmart, are smaller and hold fewer titles, and especially fewer fantasy and science fiction titles. Grocery stores have reduced or eliminated book and magazine sections. At one time, Anderson Merchandisers supplied books to big-box retailers, but, from what I can tell, after Readerlink purchased the company, the quality and breadth of books provided declined.

According to Publishers Weekly, Circana BookScan recently reported that U.S. mass market sales plunged from 131 million books in 2004 to 21 million in 2024, a drop of about 84%, and sales this year through October were about 15 million units.

Then, add to that the cost. The last book of mine to be issued in a mass-market edition was Contrarian, in July of 2024, and the list retail price was $14.99. The Amazon discounted price was $13.30, but the ebook price after six months dropped to around ten dollars.

The bottom line is that is costs more than $10 to produce and distribute a mass market paperback and only a small fraction of readers are willing to pay more than $10.

Monday’s Muse (#6)

After tearing down the East Wing,
Hark the herald angels sing.
Who’s the chump?
You… or Donald Trump?

Priority (?)

Last week, on Friday, I mailed a book to a relative in a neighboring state. I sent it priority mail from my local post office well before the afternoon mail is scheduled to be dispatched. USPS gave me an expected delivery date of Tuesday.

I suspected it might take longer, but checked the tracking number on Wednesday. It was still “in transit.” On Thursday afternoon, I checked again. Still in transit, but projected to be delivered by 9:00 P.M. on Friday. On Friday, it finally arrived in mid-afternoon.

These days, over ninety percent of our mail consists of political or charitable solicitations, advertising circulars, and catalogues from companies and merchandizers we’ve never used. The remaining ten percent consists of periodic bills and magazines to which we’ve subscribed (since I read them in bits at times and places where it’s not feasible or convenient to read electronic copies). We now also get Amazon package deliveries on Sunday… from USPS.

So why does it take more than a week for USPS to deliver priority mail to a town on a paved state highway less than five hundred miles away?

A reader recently sent me a book to be autographed and included return postage and a label. I signed the book and took it to the post office to send it. The clerk informed me that the zip code didn’t match the reader’s address. Since I was fairly certain that the reader knew her own address, I told the clerk to send it (priority mail) to the address on the label. When I checked to see if it had been delivered, the tracking software told me it was “delivered to the original sender,” if a day later than projected. Since it didn’t come back to me, I thought it was delivered to the reader, which was confirmed later by the recipient.

When we moved to Cedar City, the mail was processed here. About fifteen years ago, the Post Office decided to process the local mail in Provo, some two hundred miles to the north. Around five years ago, they switched to processing Cedar City’s mail to Las Vegas, so a bill from a company in Cedar City makes a four-hundred-mile circuit to be delivered across town. I have a hard time believing that this is cost-effective.

It’s also caused problems with voting, because voting in Utah is by mail, and that means you can’t mail your ballot as late as the day before election because it might not be stamped (in Las Vegas) until after the election. It might not even meet the deadline if you mailed it the Saturday before, according to some reports.

But Amazon packages get here in two-three days.

So… tell me, what’s the priority for the Post Office?

Monday’s Muse (#5)

With gala twenties parties at Mar-a-lago
Can a Crash be far to go?
Who’s the chump?
You… or Donald Trump?