One of the problems in dealing with public finances in a democracy, and particularly in the United States, is that, when it comes to large numbers, a significant percentage of the population suffers from innumeracy, i.e., a lack of full understanding of numbers and/or mathematical concepts, and the ability to reason with them.

For example, the Senate just passed a $9 billion recission bill that will “claw back” funds already appropriated for foreign aid and public broadcasting, a cut that will primarily cripple if not eliminate broadcast stations in rural areas. While a $9 billion cut sounds significant, it only amounts to less than one tenth of one percent of the total federal budget, according to the Republican Senate Majority Leader. But just a week ago, Trump signed his “big, beautiful bill,” which will raise national defense spending by $156.2 billion. The cuts in non-defense federal programs aren’t enough to offset the massive increases in defense and homeland security, and few if any politicians are keeping track of the negative multiplier effect of federal job cuts.

Likewise, as I wrote previously, the “tax cut” won’t grant most taxpayers any lower taxes than they’ve paid over the last several years. It will keep their tax rates from returning to pre-2018 levels.

Because “big, beautiful bill” also increases health care and other costs, families may receive modest tax cuts, but face higher costs in health, education, and other areas. According to the Congressional Budget Office, on average, families earning less than $56,000 a year will bring home $300 less than before the bill was enacted as result of the increased cost of federal or federal supported services, while families earning less than $43,000 will bring home $750 less. On the other hand, families with earnings in the top ten percent will benefit by an average of $12,000.

According to the most conservative of economists, the deficit from the bill will add over $2 trillion to the national debt, and that debt will need to be financed, increasing the pressure on interest rates. The apparent consensus among federal policy makers is that an inflation rate of two percent a year is “feasible,” but that “feasible” rate means that today’s dollar will only be worth fifty-one cents in twenty years – or that you’ll have to increase the value of your savings by almost fifty percent to have the same purchasing power in twenty years. And two percent is far lower than what’s likely to occur.

Yet the majority of Trump’s supporters don’t seem to have the slightest idea that the “big, beautiful bill” will reduce real incomes of possibly as much as a fifth of American families (based on CBO figures) both now and in the future.

Despite all the rhetoric about violent illegal immigrants and immigrant illegal drug dealers, what are ICE and others assisting it actually doing?

From what I can tell, they’re targeting immigrants and anyone who even looks like they might be an immigrant, largely without probable cause, in and around schools, colleges and universities, markets, churches, and even around immigration offices where immigrants are trying to follow the law. They’re also targeting immigrants here legally whose only crime is to have the nerve to criticize ICE and/or Trump’s policies.

What they don’t seem to be doing, or aren’t doing all that successfully, is targeting, arresting, and prosecuting and/or deporting the comparatively tiny percentage of illegal immigrants who are criminals (beyond being undocumented) and who are behind the epidemic of fentanyl and other illegal drugs, human sex trafficking, and other violent crimes.

The federal/ICE attitude seems to be that, if they deport anyone and everyone who looks like an immigrant, that will solve the problem. It won’t, because the skilled and hardened immigrant criminals avoid all the locations where ICE is patrolling and seizing people to deport, at times almost randomly, and without any form of legal proceeding.

This near-blind snatch and grab campaign terrorizes communities, disrupts workplaces and schools, increases the costs for farms and businesses, and creates chaos. It also provokes violence and crimes. What it doesn’t do is reduce crime and illegal drugs.

Effective law enforcement works systematically and with the community, not against it, to target and find actual criminals, prove their guilt, and apply the proper punishment. But all that takes planning, time, and hard methodical work, none of which seem to be employed by ICE and Homeland Security.

Millions of Americans are looking forward to a federal income tax cut that won’t and cannot happen.

Both Donald Trump and the Republican Congress are touting a non-existent tax cut as part of Trump’s big beautiful (beautiful only in the eyes of certain beholders) bill, but to know or understand this, one has to know the full background of what happened more than seven years ago, which is an eternity in most people’s minds, particularly the minds of Trump supporters.

On January 1, 2018, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act took effect, reducing tax rates and increasing exemptions, with a whole host of other provisions. These lower rates have been in effect ever since then, but would have expired at the end of this year.

What the “big beautiful bill” does is to make those earlier tax cuts permanent and make a few additional temporary tax cuts (from 2025 through 2028) for some income from tips, as well as make some modest increases in allowable deductions and add a few targeted tax deductions, such as auto loan interest payments on U.S.- made cars. The “cost” of all this is higher taxes on green and renewable energy generation and reductions in health care programs for the poorest Americans.

The bottom line? Very few will get significant tax cuts from what they paid last year, except for people with a significant income from tips. And something like 10 million Americans will lose various health and SNAP benefits, while scores of rural hospitals will face cuts that may force their closure.

But Trump gets credit for a non-existent tax cut, or more charitably, for making his 2018 temporary tax cuts permanent. So he gets popular credit for doing the same thing twice.

Meanwhile, from what I can tell, the Democrats haven’t even been able to point this out in any effective fashion, which doesn’t bode well for their chances in upcoming elections.

The United States can survive most policies – good or bad – carried out by a president.

What we may not be able to survive is the polarization fueled by the fiery waves of hatred emanating from President Trump, the latest of target of which were Democrats, when he declared on nationwide television that he “hates Democrats.”

I hate as well, but I hate misguided policies and the stupidity and cupidity of most of Trump’s supporters in government. But hating all Republicans?

My wife and I have friends, neighbors, and relatives who are staunch Trump supporters and often Republicans. Most of them are good people who’d do almost anything to help. While I cannot understand why they support unwaveringly a President who spouts vileness and hatred for anyone who disagrees with him and who espouses policies that, in many cases, will have severe adverse consequences on the country, I do not hate them. I find it hard to believe that they accept his lies unthinkingly, but I don’t hate them.

I also hate quite a few policies espoused by extreme leftist Democrats, but I don’t hate them, either. I do think their extremism enabled Trump’s victory and supplied fuel for his hatred campaigns.

As I’ve written here before, one of the greatest problems with unthinking or violent hatred is that it consumes people and makes them stupid, and that is exactly what Trump is accomplishing with his continuing hate-fueled tirades. He’s using hatred to enact laws and establish policies that are detrimental to the best interests of the nation.

Yes, among other things, we need to get our fiscal house in order and expel immigrants who have committed crimes other than merely being here without proper documentation. But the legislation just passed by Congress primarily gives tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans and actually takes more from most Americans in other ways. Unthinking spending cuts have already had to be rescinded in many cases because they targeted vital government functions, while not touching obsolete military bases even the Pentagon has wanted to close.

Trump’s immigration policies are expelling foreign students who entered the U.S. legally and who paid money to U.S. colleges and universities. Many of these students, as in the past, would like to stay and contribute to making America great. The vast majority of “illegal” immigrants swept up for deportation were not criminals beyond not having entered the country legally. Many others swept up entered legally, and ICE and even Trump have ignored the legality of their presence. Overall, the rate of criminal offenses among “illegal” immigrants is far lower than the rate of criminality among U.S. citizens.

And those are just a few of the stupidities created by Trump’s waves of hatred, and those stupidities will continue so long as unthinking hatred is widespread.

AI is coming, regardless. And while AI applications will have a strong impact on manufacturing and production, they’re also going to affect so-called white-collar clerical and lower-level data-management, as well as routine computer coding.

Authors and artists won’t be exempt, either. Artists who do illustrations for books and other publications are already complaining, and at least some publications are refusing to use artwork solely or partly AI-generated.

As for authors, a number of lawsuits have been brought in California and New York courts against various AI companies for copyright infringement because the companies employed unauthorized copying of authors’ works to train their generative AI models.

The discussions around this appear muddled, at least to me. Intelligence has to “learn” in some fashion. I’d read more than a thousand SF books and all the stories in ANALOG (including some from the Astounding Science-Fiction era) for fifteen years before I ever thought about writing a story, let alone a novel. So have a great many other authors.

The problem I have with the way the AI companies approached this was that while I had to pay (or occasionally borrow from the local library) to read and learn, these companies used pirated copies and paid no one. Some have attempted to claim “fair use,” which is absurd, given that “fair use” case law doesn’t allow use of extended prose in any form.

So why shouldn’t the AI companies pay royalties to authors whose works aren’t in the public domain? Shakespeare doesn’t need the royalties, but living, breathing, and working authors need and deserve them.

Since none of these legal suits have yet come to trial (so far as I can tell), we’ll see what the courts have to say.

Of course, those lawsuits don’t address the fact that dialogue from movies and TV shows has been used by companies such as Apple and Anthropic to train AI systems.

I could be underestimating the potential of generative AI, but I doubt that it will ever produce truly great prose or poetry, or even well-written mid-list fiction, but I have no doubt that, in time, it will be able to churn out serviceable methodical fiction with little uniqueness.

As in many fields, we’ll have to see, but in the meantime, the AI companies have no business pirating current authors’ works in an effort to eventually replace them.